The Brutal Truth About Position Sizing That Nobody Wants to Hear

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I’ll just come out and say it — I’m more defensive right now than I’ve been in a long time.

And that’s not my natural mode. I like moving fast, finding setups and taking shots. But when there’s this much uncertainty hanging over the market, you have to respect what you don’t know.

The problem isn’t that we don’t have opportunities. It’s that most of the market momentum names — crypto, tech and all the stuff that thrives on a sustained rally — are basically asking you to hope the market trends cleanly higher.

And right now? That’s really hard because anything can happen out of the blue.

So instead of pushing hard into directional plays, I’m being way more selective. I’m focused on short-term setups — dailies, weeklies, premium selling and income strategies.

These give you a set risk-reward, which is exactly what you want when implied volatility is high and the market’s mood can flip on a headline. Honestly, we couldn’t ask for more fertile ground for scalping or picking up pennies on the street.

It’s not glamorous, but it works when conditions are unpredictable.

The One Exception I’m Making

Here’s where it gets interesting. While I’m backing off most sectors, there’s one area I’m still comfortable playing: biotechs.

They move on their own timelines and their own catalysts. Trial data, approvals and partnerships create movement independent of the major indexes. They don’t need the S&P 500 to cooperate to make a move, which is a massive advantage when nothing else in the market feels reliable.

Energy has shown flashes of opportunity too. We’ve had solid trades in names like Schlumberger (SLB) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), but I’m still careful about overstaying any position there.

Oil can swing 3-4% or even 5% in either direction on any given day, and that’s not the kind of volatility you casually sit through. When you’re playing in that kind of environment, you take the gift and move on.

Playing the Long Game

One thing worth remembering is that despite all the noise, certain parts of the market machine are incredibly accurate. Market makers rarely ever get it wrong — they can’t afford to be wrong. When you understand how they’re pricing risk, you can use that to your advantage instead of fighting it.

And I’m not saying the market is doomed or that we’re headed into a long grind lower. In fact, I think by the midterms the market could easily be back at all-time highs.

But getting there? That’s the tricky part. The more this chop continues, the bigger the rip is going to be when it finally comes — maybe in two, three or four months, whenever it decides to break loose.

Your job right now is to stay sharp without getting chewed up. Look for the setups that offer clarity, defined risk and short-duration exposure. Lean on sectors that don’t need the market’s permission to move. Generate income while you wait for a real trend to form.

The big move is coming. Just don’t burn yourself out trying to guess the exact moment it starts.

Order Flow: 

This is for informational and educational purposes only. These are not official alerts issued by Lance, but rather some interesting orders picked by the team at Lance Ippolito Trading.

When you look at these plays, always take the market maker move into consideration.

You can be right on the direction but still lose money if the stock doesn’t move enough. That’s where the market maker move comes in clutch.

With puts, they’re often downside hedges in case a stock tanks, especially around earnings. The further out of the money they are, the more likely they are to be hedges.

Also be sure and check when the company’s earnings date is because many of the plays we post here are centered around earnings!

If a stock is really expensive, consider a spread to lower the cost.

And finally, always remember the golden rule when it comes to buying calls: Buy dips, sell rips — and don’t chase!

If a stock’s moved a ton already today, maybe wait for a pullback.

There is inherent risk in trading. Trade at your own risk.

Note: If no date is listed after the month, it’s the monthly expiration (third Friday).

The team at Lance Ippolito Trading

Lance doesn’t want the CCP spying on him, so you’ll never find him on TikTok. Same goes for other social media sites, which are filled with impersonators, scammers and crypto bros.

You can only find him on his personal YouTube Channel — smash that Subscribe button! https://www.youtube.com/@LanceIppolito

And in his private Telegram channel: https://t.me/+-gVwEIwGJhplMTgx

Important Note: No one from the team at Lance Ippolito Trading, New Money Crew or any of its associated brands will ever contact you directly on Telegram.

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

P.S. We’ve Clocked 200 Winners Trading the Market’s Most Repeated Daily Pattern 

By playing a pattern the market repeats daily no matter what…

We’ve been able to stay immune from some of the worst markets in the last year. 

Be it the war with Iran this year or the tariff war last year, my No. 1 daily approach has kept us floating and in the green.

Want to see how it works?

Go Here Now for the Details

We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. From 2/20/25 to 3/30/2026, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 89.7%. The average weighted rate of return on options trades was 14.11% over a six-hour hold time.