Let’s be honest — trying to predict which direction a name like Microsoft (MSFT) is heading next is basically just playing stock market roulette. And in this environment, that’s a losing game.
The market completely changed direction within 10 seconds early Monday…
I woke up and saw the market down 1%, hit the treadmill at the gym, checked my phone, and suddenly we’re up 2%. That’s the kind of market we’re in right now.
There’s no moving average or technical setup that can predict something that changes on a single Trump tweet. Anyone on CNBC telling you they can forecast these moves based on the 50-day moving average?
They’re just talking out their ass.
Right now, I have zero idea what the market does tomorrow. And I’m perfectly fine with that — because I’m not trying to play that game anymore. Instead of forcing forecasts in a market that whipsaws every few minutes, I think swing trading is the sweet spot for most retail options or stock traders.
It keeps you from getting chopped up by intraday noise without requiring you to predict every single tick.
The Honey Badger Approach
Instead of trying to nail the next move in the major indices, I’m sticking with what I like to call Honey Badger stocks — names that beat to their own drum whether the market is up or down.
These are the stocks that can be independent, and that’s exactly the kind of behavior you want when the broader tape is this unpredictable.
Now, a word of warning…
That usually means meme stocks, highly shorted names and potential squeeze plays. These are the stocks that can stay independent and move on their own catalysts, not because some Fed official opened his mouth or a tariff tweet dropped.
Order flow has been pretty good lately. I’ve been seeing the metals pick up some solid order flow along with cruise liners and airlines. That’s where I’m focusing my attention — stocks with real conviction showing up in the order flow, not just trying to guess which way the wind blows tomorrow.
Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip
For longer-term swing trades, I’m playing mean reversion hard. When energy goes down, transportation stocks go up. When energy goes up and gold goes down, buy the dip.
This market is operating like a pump-and-dump scheme right now, so I’m not going to pretend I can outsmart it with fancy technical analysis. I’m going to trade what’s actually moving independently, follow the order flow where I see conviction and play mean reversion on the stuff that’s stretched.
At the end of the day, you have to trade in a way that fits who you are. Know your personality — that’s the No. 1 thing. If you understand how you handle risk, volatility and uncertainty, the market becomes a lot easier to navigate.
Order Flow:
This is for informational and educational purposes only. These are not official alerts issued by Lance, but rather some interesting orders picked by the team at Lance Ippolito Trading.
When you look at these plays, always take the market maker move into consideration.
You can be right on the direction but still lose money if the stock doesn’t move enough. That’s where the market maker move comes in clutch.
With puts, they’re often downside hedges in case a stock tanks, especially around earnings. The further out of the money they are, the more likely they are to be hedges.
Also be sure and check when the company’s earnings date is because many of the plays we post here are centered around earnings!
If a stock is really expensive, consider a spread to lower the cost.
And finally, always remember the golden rule when it comes to buying calls: Buy dips, sell rips — and don’t chase!
If a stock’s moved a ton already today, maybe wait for a pullback.
There is inherent risk in trading. Trade at your own risk.
Note: If no date is listed after the month, it’s the monthly expiration (third Friday).
The team at Lance Ippolito Trading
Lance doesn’t want the CCP spying on him, so you’ll never find him on TikTok. Same goes for other social media sites, which are filled with impersonators, scammers and crypto bros.
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
